Asian League · resolved market
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf639af594505737699134568440c501c03e97f2a5eb9b696df663ac87d2e0d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,578 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 3,558$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.47 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 2,382$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.72 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 74c | 1,407$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.8 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 26c | 1,096$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 27c | 891.61$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.07 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 661.65$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked No | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 218.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 30c | 146.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 121.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…3332backed Yes | 16c | 102.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 90.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 23c | 71.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 26c | 58.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…90d7backed Yes | 35c | 57.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked No | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 46.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 427 | 25.8%110 W · 317 L | -34.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 27c | 44.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 28c | 42.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 41.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed No | 75c | 30.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed No | 72c | 22.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.