Tennis · resolved market
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf63dc60a7820144c8fa2e78d849a3ec37830fea37c4ea96ff2f084bf75ae9553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 546.34$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.17 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 503.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.44 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 380.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.73 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 205.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 201$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 123.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Over 2.5 | 54c | 111.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…7827backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 83.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 82.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 70.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 59.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1187…20c4backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Under 2.5 | 37c | 50.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2821…9534backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 42.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over 2.5 | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 2.5 | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 20.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs FritzShelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5)Fritz won
- Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor FritzBen Shelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.