MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67546340b8843856a6939384e3ba788014d06f2d834184ae0e8b6658c5d0592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 7,556$4,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,306.97 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 2,511$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.48 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 2,511$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.47 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 2,511$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.47 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…8322backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,350$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 915$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.35 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 456.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…7fdcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 9c | 158.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.