MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a2b26cfa2a908052dad0194ce201b23e51089edb912acd2b696bd2acdbd439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3fd…ca86backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,600$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 632.81$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 463.02$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 393.41$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 299.93$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 297$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 297$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 286.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 280.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 243.64$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 131.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 107.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 76.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 58.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 55.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 51.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 44.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…96aebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.