AI · resolved market
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf679eec9831427e5eec570e9d8bb2c68a58275b8f664dadeaa5917f067118677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09ed…0b49backed Yes | 3c | 8,908$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 3,716$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,363$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,133$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,657$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes | 10c | 975.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +293.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 7c | 857.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…6ab4backed Yes | 3c | 792.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1b…3b29backed Yes | 3c | 753.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…edfbbacked Yes | 5c | 639.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 5c | 635.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 514.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…935cbacked Yes | 4c | 498.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 8c | 381.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3293…f898backed Yes | 6c | 316.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…60a5backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…b84fbacked Yes | 9c | 283.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…7ad0backed Yes | 4c | 250.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 4c | 248.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…e94ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…1fb9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…defbbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…f7b4backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.