Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67e237e4766e990c3eafb7cd6219da7ec86f77504ced8269110d6f6c54b19ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 3c | 581.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 486.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 276.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 236.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 233.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 184.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 163.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 124.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 101.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 23c | 100.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 87.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 35c | 85.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 82.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 61.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 35c | 56.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 47c | 56.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 53.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 27c | 51.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 62c | 50.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…20fbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 33c | 49.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 47c | 48.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 66c | 43.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 26c | 40.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 33c | 36.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 36.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d7…83f1backed Yes | 42c | 33.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 67c | 31.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 62c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 60c | 28.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 48c | 26.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 70c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 71c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.