Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aad3fa37e498eeb64d036bdf044cf1751d55f4ffec515d888ad1ff8c39e1940
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 290.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 263.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 33c | 250.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 77c | 249.22$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 32c | 231.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 221.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.83 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 71c | 204.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 170.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 10c | 169.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 64c | 167.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 167.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 166.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 22c | 128.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 126.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 72c | 120.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 77c | 119.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 23c | 98.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 60c | 97.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 75c | 96.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 89.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 67c | 85.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 26c | 81.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 77.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 17c | 74.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 61c | 74.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 66.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 70c | 59.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…12e0backed Yes | 26c | 53.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 49.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 32c | 47.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 64c | 47.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 78c | 46.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 44.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 72c | 40.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 33c | 39.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 36.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 72c | 33.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 71c | 33.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed No | 50c | 32.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 73c | 31.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 31.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 76c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 60c | 28.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 45c | 27.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…f237backed No | 72c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 78c | 20.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…83a8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 69c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9d…3048backed Yes | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…05d3backed Yes | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 17.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.