Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6b65f763a681be5f3dd33091e1252da6221c3aa9a4a0a3d38cb54359bb6d90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 51c | 1,818$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 37c | 1,099$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.68 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 885.05$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.21 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 667.8$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.03 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 474.88$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.29 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 356.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 268.62$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 50c | 248$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 64c | 158$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…78efbacked Over | 50c | 155.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 30c | 113.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…007abacked Under | 61c | 98.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 61c | 77.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked Under | 72c | 62.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 58c | 28.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.