Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x976593f782395b1213fff77c26a4c86fb8c3dba8be5b97517748f4af042eae02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ee…0bd0backed Over | 51c | 20,968$10,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,294.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 3,466$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.33 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…7191backed Under | 49c | 2,569$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,067$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.98 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,005$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.57 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 49c | 1,139$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.63 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 49c | 751$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.06 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 695.3$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.75 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 49c | 612.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…e863backed Under | 50c | 534.71$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 49c | 525.02$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.26 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 49c | 350$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 331.31$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…fe8ebacked Under | 49c | 291.86$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 49c | 255$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 238$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 49c | 211.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 49c | 184$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 12c | 165.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 44c | 147.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 49c | 129.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…5702backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 83.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 52c | 76.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 49c | 62.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 49c | 48.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 49c | 46.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 47c | 45.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 51c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 53c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…7dfcbacked Over | 49c | 21.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.