NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6c9a16ff12acac64879e10a72c4653009a3adc4eaddf8ae4144a8841c85b5fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Capitals, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Capitals | 32c | 1,408$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.46 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Utah | 68c | 1,250$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Utah | 70c | 443$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 30c | 359.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 29c | 172.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Utah | 71c | 169.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 28c | 168.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Capitals | 29c | 135.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Utah | 70c | 114.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Utah | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Utah | 71c | 95.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Utah | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Capitals | 29c | 73.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Utah | 72c | 70.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Utah | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Utah | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Utah | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…6dd1backed Utah | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Utah | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Utah vs. CapitalsUtah won
- Utah vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Utah vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Utah vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.