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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,944 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes18c278.7$49 inLost-$49.0912,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c234.03$66 inLost-$66.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8163…c1aebacked No74c203.71$150 inWon+$53.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+108.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6712…36b9backed No75c200.43$150 inWon+$50.431978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick72cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c90.84$28 inLost-$27.6310,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c79.43$20 inLost-$19.579,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a49…59e0backed Yes24c75$18 inLost-$18.22835.7%10 W · 18 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick61cpaid-32.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes31c64.51$20 inLost-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No66c57.94$38 inWon+$19.71,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost-$152,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b57…37aabacked No68c56.53$38 inWon+$18.091662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed No74c55.36$41 inWon+$14.1641147%193 W · 218 L+58.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+59.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No74c50.74$37 inWon+$13.423,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No76c45$34 inWon+$10.9663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No68c42.62$29 inWon+$13.6446767.5%315 W · 152 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid+333.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes26c40$10 inLost-$10.214954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c30$22 inWon+$8.12,04361.7%1,261 W · 782 L+2.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No80c30$24 inWon+$6.13,83561.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f0…e477backed No80c29.37$23 inWon+$5.93366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb218…6261backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.66950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20$15 inWon+$5.41,04868.7%720 W · 328 L-33.6wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No74c20$15 inWon+$5.212458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c15.11$11 inWon+$4.316,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59ad…0cf2backed No72c14.03$10 inWon+$3.936761.2%41 W · 26 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e1a…ff36backed No72c14$10 inWon+$3.923773%27 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.