Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Humbert vs. Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e32f0998910b73538049d16fa03286ed95c11a9467529983934b856fc86579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Humbert, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Shapovalov | 39c | 7,596$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,607.61 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Humbert | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Humbert | 60c | 4,500$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Shapovalov | 45c | 3,435$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.08 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Shapovalov | 40c | 3,271$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.28 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Shapovalov | 52c | 3,252$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.2 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shapovalov | 40c | 2,218$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.75 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Humbert | 61c | 1,650$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 961 | 35.4%340 W · 621 L | -40.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Humbert | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Humbert | 38c | 1,237$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.46 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Humbert | 26c | 1,013$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Humbert | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Humbert | 47c | 936.67$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Shapovalov | 39c | 799.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.99 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Humbert | 58c | 529.02$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.91 | 1,448 | 48.8%707 W · 741 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Humbert | 60c | 524.82$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.52 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Humbert | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Humbert | 61c | 512.61$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.69 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Humbert | 74c | 512.15$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.02 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Shapovalov | 40c | 434.32$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.59 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Humbert | 57c | 434.24$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Humbert | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Humbert | 60c | 190.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Shapovalov | 31c | 175.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Humbert | 59c | 171.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Humbert | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Humbert | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Shapovalov | 41c | 152.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Humbert | 47c | 148.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,348 | 46.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L | +54.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Shapovalov | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Humbert | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Shapovalov | 52c | 96.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Humbert | 62c | 92.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Humbert | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Humbert | 68c | 61.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Shapovalov | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Shapovalov | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Shapovalov | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Shapovalov | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Humbert | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…c6adbacked Shapovalov | 44c | 29.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x697c…d778backed Shapovalov | 56c | 18.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Humbert | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Humbert | 59c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.