Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6fd1ce077b0666b94022b56f113f2f5fdd76cb76c30fc7860215d10208f7beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 392.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 42c | 385.37$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 34c | 262.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 219.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 42c | 172.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 66c | 160.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 22c | 146.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…7f70backed Yes | 23c | 131.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 111.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 89.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 81.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 36c | 66.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 61.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 55.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 54.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 55c | 54.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 44c | 47.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 37c | 46.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 43.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 33c | 42.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 38.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 64c | 36.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 44c | 34.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 71c | 34.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 68c | 34.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 32.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 61c | 31.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 57c | 31.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…cac2backed Yes | 45c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 36c | 30.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 41c | 29.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 58c | 28.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 67c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 25.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 77c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1542…ee9dbacked No | 67c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.