Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 176.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7282333899a247e15849db4c5b548e16c2613afc990b1ba15fb7030781aff35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 88,600$40,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,829.28 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 53c | 43,132$22,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,360.19 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 46c | 18,888$8,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,688.48 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd435…826ebacked Under | 49c | 18,012$8,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,827.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 17,445$9,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,110.7 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 54c | 15,111$8,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,951.06 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 54c | 6,612$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,041.49 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Over | 54c | 3,281$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Over | 55c | 2,796$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.36 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 2,537$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.32 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Over | 51c | 1,855$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.72 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 54c | 1,288$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.37 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 54c | 917.38$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 53c | 428.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.58 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 53c | 226.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 53c | 188.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 56.2%127 W · 99 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 55c | 52.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 47c | 41.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2985backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 50c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 46c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 55c | 26.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 54c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 176.5this page
- CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly MustangsCSUN Matadors won
- Spread: CSUN Matadors (-1.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.