CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbeba777c02d362da3da81cbb499be9597594818cd42baf1ecb3fb9c1f430fe61

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: CSUN Matadorsof CSUN Matadors, Cal Poly Mustangs
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,826

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x359f…fa80backed Cal Poly Mustangs	3c	1,700$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x411e…ea8bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	6c	1,200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.52	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd607…6ddcbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	3c	1,102$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	43c	1,005$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.36	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae5…910abacked Cal Poly Mustangs	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	39	0%0 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed CSUN Matadors	57c	923$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.83	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf50d…7ba8backed Cal Poly Mustangs	4c	800$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked CSUN Matadors	72c	599.98$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.99	434	50%217 W · 217 L	+13.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked CSUN Matadors	57c	530$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.81	371	42.6%158 W · 213 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	23c	513$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.39	252	46.4%117 W · 135 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b8…51cfbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	9c	500$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	12c	479.92$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.19	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Cal Poly Mustangs	23c	453.42$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	1,493	48.7%727 W · 766 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Cal Poly Mustangs	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	43c	398.83$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.58	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked CSUN Matadors	78c	368.08$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.53	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cal Poly Mustangs	15c	348.27$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.03	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	32c	345.68$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.68	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Cal Poly Mustangs	44c	250$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	794	48.9%388 W · 406 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33b9…ed3abacked Cal Poly Mustangs	25c	233.19$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cal Poly Mustangs	33c	229.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Cal Poly Mustangs	45c	221.7$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	974	47.9%467 W · 507 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked CSUN Matadors	56c	214.28$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.28	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…191bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed CSUN Matadors	56c	130.17$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.58	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal Poly Mustangs	21c	123.93$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb8…505cbacked CSUN Matadors	72c	106.45$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Cal Poly Mustangs	21c	105.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed CSUN Matadors	80c	101$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.21	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd4…676ebacked CSUN Matadors	56c	97.39$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.85	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Cal Poly Mustangs	19c	96.31$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2037…a613backed Cal Poly Mustangs	15c	80.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-67%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb242…0733backed Cal Poly Mustangs	20c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed CSUN Matadors	57c	69.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.91	536	46.5%249 W · 287 L	-24.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Cal Poly Mustangs	43c	69.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.91	918	48.9%449 W · 469 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked CSUN Matadors	55c	68.78$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.27	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	41c	62.15$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	1,058	55.8%590 W · 468 L	+34.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Cal Poly Mustangs	44c	58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	1,155	50.4%582 W · 573 L	-34.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed CSUN Matadors	55c	50.56$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.75	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Cal Poly Mustangs	45c	50.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.53	682	54.3%370 W · 312 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Cal Poly Mustangs	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	2,194	33.4%733 W · 1,461 L	+19.2wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Cal Poly Mustangs	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Cal Poly Mustangs	44c	46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	254	36.6%93 W · 161 L	-13.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs	45c	36.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	814	53.1%432 W · 382 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed CSUN Matadors	54c	35.59$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.37	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd410…bce5backed Cal Poly Mustangs	44c	33.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	48cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c2a…e715backed Cal Poly Mustangs	44c	32.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37d6…4c63backed Cal Poly Mustangs	44c	31.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Cal Poly Mustangs	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	646	58.8%380 W · 266 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed CSUN Matadors	54c	29.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	523	53.5%280 W · 243 L	-17.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71f…15afbacked CSUN Matadors	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81c0…8b96backed Cal Poly Mustangs	45c	28.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed CSUN Matadors	55c	24.6$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.07	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked CSUN Matadors	49c	24.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.39	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked CSUN Matadors	60c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.47	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed CSUN Matadors	55c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.45	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed CSUN Matadors	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.15	309	45.6%141 W · 168 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangsthis page
CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 176.5Over won
Spread: CSUN Matadors (-1.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

CSUN Matadors vs. Cal Poly Mustangs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event