Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf74561f2f547d01454bea12d9538cbbab606f1f500d1d3a20f50c7aa31f44537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,013 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.98 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 4,761$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.26 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Yes | 37c | 4,260$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.02 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 63c | 4,232$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.55 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Yes | 38c | 1,712$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.68 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed No | 63c | 555.56$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 38c | 526.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked No | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 424.23$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 34c | 299.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 62c | 279.26$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…0d36backed Yes | 39c | 257.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 238.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 61c | 120.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 38c | 119.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 64c | 115.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…3dbebacked No | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 63c | 95.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 62c | 92.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…8dc6backed Yes | 38c | 91.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 62c | 83.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 38c | 72.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 61.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 63c | 51.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed No | 62c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 271 | 51.7%140 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8039…a7cbbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 63c | 36.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 35.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…0e9ebacked Yes | 34c | 31.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 63c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Stoke City FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.