College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona State (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf74a63e1909672d4d588daa97bc7b0c8b0c7bebcc3ccf130bd193781858423cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- West Virginiaof Arizona State, West Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed West Virginia | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Arizona State | 51c | 9,594$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.79 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Arizona State | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked West Virginia | 48c | 3,945$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.84 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed West Virginia | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Arizona State | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked West Virginia | 48c | 2,043$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.36 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Arizona State | 54c | 744.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Arizona State | 52c | 555$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Arizona State | 51c | 275.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Arizona State | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed West Virginia | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Arizona State | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed West Virginia | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Arizona State | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed West Virginia | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed West Virginia | 47c | 82.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Arizona State | 53c | 79.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed West Virginia | 47c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State | 49c | 65.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Arizona State | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…e48fbacked Arizona State | 53c | 27.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…beecbacked Arizona State | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Arizona State | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona State (-10.5)this page
- O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona State (-11.5)West Virginia won
- West Virginia vs. Arizona StateArizona State won
- West Virginia vs. Arizona State: O/U 48.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.