Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf753df5300c9035bb2a13a6e75615cb2e0d2034c4e7be112f0e27a9a55646c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 4c | 450.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 211.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 181.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 73c | 117.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 26c | 107.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…6ab0backed Yes | 39c | 103.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 101.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 65c | 100.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 25c | 83.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 82.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 80.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 77.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 73.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 30c | 62.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 54.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 51.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 30c | 49.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 50c | 49.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 26c | 49.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 46.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7959backed Yes | 26c | 45.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 25c | 41.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 41.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked No | 63c | 40.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 34.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 74c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 74c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.