Fifa International · resolved market
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7576a438f7e0dbf957508666e8f4703373429d365592b946a0567843fd69889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 6c | 9,529$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.06 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 5c | 4,050$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.43 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 5c | 2,075$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 2,028$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…a417backed Yes | 5c | 1,931$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 5c | 1,836$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,398$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,340$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 426$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 5c | 409.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Yes | 10c | 390.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 309.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 293.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Yes | 11c | 174.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07?this page
- Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?No won
- Will Germany win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.