Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany win on 2025-09-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a93c4187dc9da6b8ef08e108f828cea03e48e51ed895ee28f429c441ac69a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 16c | 10,050$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.51 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 14c | 8,395$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.44 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 16c | 7,017$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 14c | 5,443$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.08 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 23c | 4,030$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.89 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 15c | 3,050$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.47 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 2,719$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.89 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 14c | 2,600$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked No | 1c | 2,538$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 23c | 2,514$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 15c | 2,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.12 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 11c | 1,627$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.08 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 15c | 1,462$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 12c | 1,356$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 16c | 1,192$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 68c | 1,174$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.25 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 63c | 850$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.5 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 16c | 699.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 64c | 619.25$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 12c | 599.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 14c | 587.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 15c | 533$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 15c | 499.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 7c | 450.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…fa33backed Yes | 67c | 450$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…43febacked Yes | 68c | 434$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 42 | 76.2%32 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 78c | 431.37$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 62c | 360.19$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 15c | 348.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 15c | 263.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…35cdbacked Yes | 69c | 245.93$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 15c | 188.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 76c | 167.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…9f08backed No | 16c | 165.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 15c | 162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…7d91backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…770fbacked Yes | 74c | 128.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 11c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 13c | 109.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 16c | 107.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…4282backed Yes | 70c | 104.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 66c | 102.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 56c | 102.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 16c | 93.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes | 67c | 84.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…9ababacked No | 16c | 68.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…3546backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 73c | 43.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…6b2cbacked Yes | 66c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…d4a4backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…cd51backed Yes | 69c | 32.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…d43ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 65c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…355ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…c1a6backed Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 269 | 46.8%126 W · 143 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…b04abacked Yes | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win on 2025-09-07?this page
- Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?No won
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.