Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb52d0e836c9605d8dc38633c71a53091a0b6047e62d71becc92bc1c636b9bb7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 9,249$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.88 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 79c | 2,736$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.32 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 16c | 2,638$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.3 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 2,190$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 1,585$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.07 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 16c | 992.07$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 78c | 621.27$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 424.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…d5d8backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c0…a417backed Yes | 8c | 139.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 25c | 132.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 38c | 63.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?this page
- Will Germany win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.