TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanxi Loongsof Shanxi Loongs, Zhejiang Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Shanxi Loongs66c15,968$10,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,430.9413046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Zhejiang Lions33c6,317$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.9416828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Zhejiang Lions40c5,964$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Zhejiang Lions30c5,924$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,801.493336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shanxi Loongs58c2,888$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.6154251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Zhejiang Lions39c1,884$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.0928943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f06…97b5backed Zhejiang Lions2c1,706$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Shanxi Loongs46c1,318$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.885151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Zhejiang Lions42c1,063$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-55.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Zhejiang Lions36c1,056$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.473652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Shanxi Loongs63c914.55$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.966844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Shanxi Loongs58c834.54$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.025360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Zhejiang Lions36c767.72$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.171118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-54.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Zhejiang Lions35c737.26$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.0726544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5373…6621backed Zhejiang Lions45c631.93$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shanxi Loongs45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33024430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb33…fadebacked Shanxi Loongs73c590.1$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.31376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0eaabacked Zhejiang Lions33c555.34$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.261030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Zhejiang Lions36c544.42$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.894946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x027b…019cbacked Shanxi Loongs70c526.4$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.745100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Zhejiang Lions55c493.54$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.168453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Shanxi Loongs46c492.54$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.971154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Zhejiang Lions58c433.78$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.544920.4%10 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x96b1…812bbacked Zhejiang Lions6c416.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Zhejiang Lions54c402.43$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.777462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Zhejiang Lions56c377.34$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.693933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Zhejiang Lions55c353.14$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Zhejiang Lions22c349.78$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.062850%14 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shanxi Loongs65c346.5$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7735234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Zhejiang Lions54c334.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.93953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Zhejiang Lions45c331.96$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9710634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked Shanxi Loongs46c300$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Shanxi Loongs43c299.98$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Zhejiang Lions41c284.74$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.14452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Shanxi Loongs47c242.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.291241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Shanxi Loongs72c240.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.097042.9%30 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Shanxi Loongs48c239.98$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe8…3684backed Zhejiang Lions36c233.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shanxi Loongs57c223$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.124344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shanxi Loongs60c217.84$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3910947.7%52 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Shanxi Loongs49c209$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.86137.7%23 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf23…50d5backed Zhejiang Lions37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Shanxi Loongs50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Shanxi Loongs50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Shanxi Loongs53c198.18$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.534042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Shanxi Loongs49c197.76$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.861145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Shanxi Loongs49c187$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.63551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Shanxi Loongs56c180.56$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.426142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Zhejiang Lions53c178.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.871643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Shanxi Loongs48c174.54$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.316061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Shanxi Loongs49c174$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.642528%7 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Shanxi Loongs49c174$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.646450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Shanxi Loongs49c173.19$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Zhejiang Lions37c162.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.528845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shanxi Loongs52c156.2$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.626935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Shanxi Loongs50c154$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Zhejiang Lions54c143.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-48.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Zhejiang Lions45c129.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Shanxi Loongs58c118.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.988544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Shanxi Loongs58c118.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.987944.3%35 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Shanxi Loongs50c118$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Shanxi Loongs46c117.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.554151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf2d…1100backed Shanxi Loongs47c103$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.592540%10 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Shanxi Loongs56c102.9$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5720936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Zhejiang Lions34c101.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Shanxi Loongs46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Shanxi Loongs50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Zhejiang Lions37c98.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4825517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xce22…5704backed Zhejiang Lions38c97.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.88520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Shanxi Loongs67c96.15$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7321535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Shanxi Loongs52c93.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-72.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb291…bc03backed Zhejiang Lions14c89.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Shanxi Loongs61c83.57$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9892…8137backed Zhejiang Lions43c80.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.591952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Shanxi Loongs56c78.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.876470.3%45 W · 19 L+11.5wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+29.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Zhejiang Lions37c74.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.596119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Zhejiang Lions36c73.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.45648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Shanxi Loongs56c73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3637052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Zhejiang Lions54c72.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.381353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Shanxi Loongs47c71.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.86848.5%33 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Shanxi Loongs47c71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.562254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Shanxi Loongs56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.813751.1%70 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Shanxi Loongs45c68.41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.626949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Shanxi Loongs57c68.19$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.325453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d1…074bbacked Zhejiang Lions44c65.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba7…d57bbacked Shanxi Loongs65c65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Zhejiang Lions48c61.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.531050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+46.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf245…746bbacked Zhejiang Lions33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33eb…b07ebacked Shanxi Loongs65c59.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.691172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Shanxi Loongs79c59.54$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Shanxi Loongs50c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.752157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Shanxi Loongs50c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.752035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Shanxi Loongs50c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.751735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Shanxi Loongs50c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.752748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Shanxi Loongs50c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.754045%18 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Zhejiang Lions35c57.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.971338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Zhejiang Lions43c55.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2919748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Zhejiang Lions41c51.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1534344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f57…3339backed Zhejiang Lions38c50.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Zhejiang Lions33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.