MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf78c520c8d0d287256e6622d40ec6c4a3ea90de154d2b2abbf6e6ca5e93fcd5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 46c | 909.53$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.39 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 28c | 454.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.28 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 13c | 249.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 46c | 103.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Over | 47c | 92.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 91.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 37c | 67.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 64.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 30.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.