MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x828062df647deaef0934efa1df068ea1b2b00d2d24d8cc26d1d7859330b1b9f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 31,324$14,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,608.25 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 18,759$9,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,942.48 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 18,717$9,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,919.62 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 18,262$8,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,678.7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…bef4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 17,021$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,021.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…098abacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 5,324$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.89 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.99 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 899.97$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.98 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 889$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.17 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 280.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 229.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 196.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 191.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 134.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 93.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 72.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Chicago White Sox | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 57.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…7a96backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…d662backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…62fbbacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03d…5bdcbacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.