Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79081e2135ea0e46e17eb84c767bdea8b2a6b3c01498ce93443a768fe21ff11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 72c | 3,654$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.79 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 28c | 1,954$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.72 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,951$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.3 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 23c | 1,848$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.56 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 55c | 1,758$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.9 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 19c | 1,257$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 26c | 1,212$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.33 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 843.24$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 53c | 745.42$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.47 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 54c | 671.93$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.91 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 646.66$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.66 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 55c | 621.37$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.75 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 607$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 54c | 544$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.76 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 50c | 523.51$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.45 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…8e46backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 80c | 249.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 176 | 34.1%60 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 55c | 198$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed No | 9c | 189.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 123.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 118.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 122 | 41.8%51 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 56c | 75.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 26c | 72.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ec…27c4backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…eb5cbacked Yes | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 54c | 37.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…dc7dbacked No | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 33c | 34.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 44c | 27.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 57c | 23.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…1809backed No | 55c | 20.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 72c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will Watford FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.