Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf791e391814da5360ec3a4ea957af859b19b646a9191f9c4da8d13d5b4b3e152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof REKONIX, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Execration | 35c | 2,002$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.93 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed REKONIX | 64c | 1,534$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.99 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked REKONIX | 69c | 946.94$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.27 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed REKONIX | 60c | 628.68$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.13 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed REKONIX | 72c | 526.95$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.2 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Execration | 10c | 509.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 31c | 453.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Execration | 22c | 422.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Execration | 39c | 362.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Execration | 34c | 350.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked REKONIX | 47c | 220.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked REKONIX | 62c | 163.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Execration | 38c | 142.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Execration | 48c | 140.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked REKONIX | 74c | 129.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Execration | 35c | 118.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed REKONIX | 73c | 111.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Execration | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Execration | 55c | 99.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed REKONIX | 65c | 83.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed Execration | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked REKONIX | 61c | 70.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Execration | 25c | 64.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked REKONIX | 74c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked Execration | 40c | 42.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed REKONIX | 61c | 34.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked REKONIX | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked REKONIX | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…1fbfbacked REKONIX | 61c | 25.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed REKONIX | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed REKONIX | 73c | 24.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed REKONIX | 63c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked REKONIX | 70c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.