Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Muttenz Men: Justin Schlageter vs Andrin Casanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf796e6b43e266da7fb2c950309f15308d8e977b703e255af901f53f42c981846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrin Casanovaof Justin Schlageter, Andrin Casanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Justin Schlageter | 44c | 393.29$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Andrin Casanova | 60c | 273.84$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…2f66backed Andrin Casanova | 47c | 211.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 216 | 61.1%132 W · 84 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Justin Schlageter | 43c | 205.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fe…359dbacked Andrin Casanova | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Justin Schlageter | 45c | 182.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Andrin Casanova | 47c | 156.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…f5b0backed Andrin Casanova | 66c | 133$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 469 | 57.6%270 W · 199 L | +32.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Justin Schlageter | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…30debacked Justin Schlageter | 34c | 113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Justin Schlageter | 68c | 100.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Justin Schlageter | 72c | 96.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Andrin Casanova | 38c | 87.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Andrin Casanova | 53c | 62.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Andrin Casanova | 47c | 62.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Andrin Casanova | 77c | 61.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Justin Schlageter | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Justin Schlageter | 33c | 51.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Andrin Casanova | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Justin Schlageter | 51c | 46.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Andrin Casanova | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 311 | 64.3%200 W · 111 L | +36.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Justin Schlageter | 43c | 41.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 461 | 55.3%255 W · 206 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Andrin Casanova | 70c | 37.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Justin Schlageter | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Justin Schlageter | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…cd83backed Andrin Casanova | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 445 | 52.8%235 W · 210 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Justin Schlageter | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Andrin Casanova | 64c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Andrin Casanova | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Andrin Casanova | 62c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Andrin Casanova | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Andrin Casanova | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Andrin Casanova | 61c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Andrin Casanova | 80c | 14.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Andrin Casanova | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Andrin Casanova | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 391 | 59.1%231 W · 160 L | +28.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.