Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79e8dd78f2c1805b2cfd85e0abb192c1473ee17d3858e3b090ee4c94763b5e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 23c | 1,768$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.03 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,423$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 3c | 944.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 19c | 899$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 472.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed No | 76c | 430$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 4c | 328$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 80c | 294.37$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe79d…f9e2backed Yes | 20c | 205$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked Yes | 22c | 189$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 146.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 26c | 113.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 20c | 92.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbde…3092backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)this page
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
- Will "The Abandons" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.