Movies · resolved market
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfeb287cb2d870cf1c2d9fde8662e0a5496e761695268b2cb70566a945408c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 9c | 4,000$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 15c | 1,710$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 5c | 1,206$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…54e5backed No | 54c | 1,143$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 47c | 1,053$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.16 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 79c | 845.38$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.21 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 11c | 777.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 396.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed No | 51c | 372$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed No | 10c | 300.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 34c | 276$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 19c | 276$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 49c | 241$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 16c | 233.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed Yes | 66c | 232$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 58c | 212$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 42c | 199$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 52c | 185$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 19c | 185$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 19c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes | 49c | 164$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 51c | 155$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 18c | 151.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 14c | 147.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed No | 33c | 139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 34c | 124$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 58c | 122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 66c | 99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 14c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…4a12backed Yes | 56c | 84.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked No | 21c | 52.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 49c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c85…0790backed Yes | 78c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b72…dca9backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)this page
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
- Will "The Abandons" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.