Tennis · resolved market
Santiago: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Bueno
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7a5f44afc0058ebbbb7ebfde74337708ac01749a943f43ff2c0ca0a47fefaf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gonzalo Buenoof Juan Pablo Varillas, Gonzalo Bueno
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,397 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 13c | 3,014$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.44 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 20c | 1,654$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.69 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 28c | 1,032$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.22 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 19c | 979.74$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 27c | 747.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 78c | 583.96$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.01 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Gonzalo Bueno | 45c | 502.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.9 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Gonzalo Bueno | 45c | 433.75$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.4 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 425$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.44 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Gonzalo Bueno | 78c | 320$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…ef96backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 8c | 298.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 30c | 288.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 23c | 261.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gonzalo Bueno | 70c | 215.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Gonzalo Bueno | 78c | 192.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 54c | 188$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 165$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Gonzalo Bueno | 49c | 164.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…a1c1backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 18c | 155.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 226 | 42%95 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Gonzalo Bueno | 70c | 142.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 73c | 116.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 20c | 90.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 175 | 52.6%92 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 31c | 76.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 24c | 76.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…1bd7backed Gonzalo Bueno | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 109 | 67.9%74 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Gonzalo Bueno | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 333 | 64.9%216 W · 117 L | -19.4wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 25c | 66.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 75c | 62.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 29c | 61.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…4f8ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 34c | 52.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…6100backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed Gonzalo Bueno | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 70c | 35.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8161…e08ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked Gonzalo Bueno | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…7758backed Gonzalo Bueno | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Gonzalo Bueno | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Gonzalo Bueno | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 211 | 72%152 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.