Fifa International · resolved market
Will Poland win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b2a8114ffa1c390caf11d3935aac9530bedff4aba36aea1d8d6e3983daf5d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 11c | 18,821$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 4,550$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,994$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 4c | 2,509$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed Yes | 5c | 2,073$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…db73backed Yes | 9c | 1,784$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 790$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 3c | 638.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 618.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 10c | 531.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11a…59cbbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 9c | 268.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d0…07acbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…0cd0backed Yes | 10c | 134.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.