Fifa International · resolved market
Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50dab8a009942b391fd086deecef992d551f9dba640731b992d8a7d0359a2588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 17c | 30,594$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,404.1 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 21c | 10,025$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,896.93 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 20c | 6,632$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,291.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 76c | 5,781$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,421.7 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 23c | 4,374$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,373.91 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 21c | 4,288$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,377.81 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 30c | 3,914$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.69 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 21c | 3,380$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,677.23 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 23c | 2,413$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 2,076$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.2 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 22c | 2,050$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 18c | 1,500$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 16c | 1,320$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbc…a37bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,261$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 72c | 1,257$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 13c | 711.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.07 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 21c | 600$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 23c | 600$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.92 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 15c | 450$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.7 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 25c | 440.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 23c | 432$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 79c | 365.65$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked No | 22c | 354.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.55 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 24c | 349.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed No | 22c | 324.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…cfc1backed Yes | 79c | 253.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed Yes | 76c | 200.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 77cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 77c | 144.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…a2b4backed Yes | 77c | 142.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 75c | 133.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 78c | 130.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 46.7%70 W · 80 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…8c6bbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…9dc3backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 75c | 103.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 24c | 99.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…3b90backed Yes | 76c | 84.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 139 | 55.4%77 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 22c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 77c | 72.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…4019backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…f352backed Yes | 76c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 80c | 49.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 78c | 48.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…863abacked No | 39c | 32.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf974…f5eebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a63ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ed…c443backed Yes | 78c | 16.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Poland win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.