Earnings · resolved market
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e0401cc07b0b45c1de17d226d9862967335a6218439b4c7b1c9d163e6fa7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 45c | 550$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 33c | 517.23$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 55c | 508.2$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.35 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 69c | 286$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 64c | 254.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed Yes | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 69c | 56.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 49.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…6c61backed Yes | 35c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 65c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaeb…5a2abacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…7b04backed No | 70c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.