College Football · resolved market
Kent State vs. Buffalo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f1af0b9aa8a27b298bd26f038408c70d7c603e4eb373c57baeff5b7f71aee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buffaloof Kent State, Buffalo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd889…cf51backed Kent State | 9c | 3,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kent State | 6c | 1,393$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…9667backed Kent State | 7c | 1,247$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +224.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Kent State | 7c | 1,187$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Kent State | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…9ab0backed Kent State | 7c | 965.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Kent State | 9c | 949.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Kent State | 6c | 912.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kent State | 8c | 873.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…96f7backed Kent State | 7c | 730.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Kent State | 3c | 730.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…8d72backed Kent State | 36c | 561.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Kent State | 6c | 487.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…e9c0backed Kent State | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Kent State | 9c | 296.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Kent State | 12c | 257.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Buffalo | 46c | 241.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Kent State | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Kent State | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Kent State | 8c | 193.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Kent State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…2c8dbacked Kent State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb386…4941backed Kent State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…dc29backed Kent State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…f494backed Kent State | 19c | 79.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Buffalo | 55c | 70.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +743.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…6be4backed Kent State | 43c | 46.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.