Tennis · resolved market
Pegula vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f85b2d36fcba2ef05720db7d65a9dc7e0f21a9d97b392ca515fe39b71d1896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Over | 53c | 531.25$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.37 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 49c | 351.88$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 46c | 259.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Under | 54c | 259.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 45c | 240.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 51c | 145.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Over | 49c | 102.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 49c | 74.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…07c3backed Over | 51c | 51.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 51c | 50.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Under | 52c | 42.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 48c | 42.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 50c | 31.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +10.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 49c | 29.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Under | 51c | 29.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a5…4572backed Over | 49c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pegula vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Jessica Pegula vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Anna KalinskayaJessica Pegula won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs KalinskayaPegula won
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.