Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d439b0dca46ec99d3ae9729089344ad703df4dddbd2c01c115fc0b06d5ad4e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Kalinskaya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Kalinskaya | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Pegula | 50c | 1,309$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.63 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Pegula | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 545 | 41.7%227 W · 318 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…5cd9backed Pegula | 49c | 979.59$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.59 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Kalinskaya | 51c | 783.11$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.8 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Kalinskaya | 61c | 534.59$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.1 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pegula | 53c | 456.3$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Pegula | 50c | 376$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pegula | 39c | 291.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.69 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Pegula | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Pegula | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…ad6abacked Kalinskaya | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Kalinskaya | 28c | 164.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Pegula | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Pegula | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Pegula | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a46…c6a0backed Pegula | 49c | 88.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Kalinskaya | 52c | 77.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Kalinskaya | 54c | 73.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…36f6backed Pegula | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pegula | 78c | 47.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Pegula | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Pegula | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…ee62backed Pegula | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Pegula | 50c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Pegula | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Pegula | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Pegula | 74c | 28.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Pegula | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Pegula | 64c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)this page
- Jessica Pegula vs. Anna Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Anna KalinskayaJessica Pegula won
- Pegula vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs KalinskayaPegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.