Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7fdcb2937b3c9d7659166b1589f6b20b6dc3069190e174e372644b177c4775e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Satan666of Satan666, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Cloud Dawning | 47c | 2,073$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.01 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Satan666 | 53c | 2,055$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.76 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Satan666 | 67c | 1,506$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.02 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…0208backed Cloud Dawning | 33c | 894.07$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +4,932.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0890…0646backed Satan666 | 57c | 751.08$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Satan666 | 52c | 581.43$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.6 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Cloud Dawning | 49c | 524.42$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Satan666 | 53c | 470.69$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.67 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Satan666 | 53c | 322.25$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Cloud Dawning | 49c | 294.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Satan666 | 52c | 174.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cloud Dawning | 42c | 98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Satan666 | 58c | 97.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Cloud Dawning | 37c | 95.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Satan666 | 40c | 94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Cloud Dawning | 41c | 91.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Satan666 | 52c | 87.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked Satan666 | 64c | 79.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Satan666 | 56c | 65.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Cloud Dawning | 38c | 53.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Satan666 | 49c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Satan666 | 55c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Dawning | 40c | 32.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Satan666 | 42c | 30.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…f553backed Cloud Dawning | 45c | 28.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Satan666 | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsSatan666 won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 WinnerSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.