Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897813d3ad89b847064245fa6508f2bfecdd65b111c6efc6f32f8edf3edddba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Satan666of Satan666, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Cloud Dawning | 55c | 239.11$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Satan666 | 42c | 189.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Satan666 | 45c | 180.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…31abbacked Cloud Dawning | 58c | 167.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af4…e516backed Satan666 | 58c | 126.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Satan666 | 43c | 100.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Satan666 | 79c | 91.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Cloud Dawning | 34c | 73.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Cloud Dawning | 55c | 71.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Satan666 | 69c | 69.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Satan666 | 45c | 66.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 180 | 42.8%77 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Cloud Dawning | 30c | 63.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked Cloud Dawning | 27c | 63.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Cloud Dawning | 58c | 54.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Satan666 | 41c | 51.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Cloud Dawning | 57c | 49.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Cloud Dawning | 53c | 37.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Satan666 | 40c | 26.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Satan666 | 74c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 WinnerSatan666 won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.