Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456641265a1184c38a2776d6f6036eeaf354b31fc135e59247dfef71cc9eb5fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Satan666of Satan666, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Cloud Dawning | 2c | 1,014$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Cloud Dawning | 63c | 249.26$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.56 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Satan666 | 42c | 228.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Cloud Dawning | 42c | 188.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Cloud Dawning | 70c | 140.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Cloud Dawning | 51c | 109.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Satan666 | 13c | 98.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Satan666 | 43c | 84.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Cloud Dawning | 65c | 72.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Satan666 | 60c | 69.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Satan666 | 26c | 58.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Satan666 | 43c | 57.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Satan666 | 30c | 51.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…45c4backed Satan666 | 64c | 51.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Cloud Dawning | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked Cloud Dawning | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked Satan666 | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Satan666 | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Satan666 | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +474.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Cloud Dawning | 67c | 17.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsSatan666 won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.