Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8328577fa7a3d601eb159bcd04a931c7a3a41f28fe92c1a83f98de3de5c49cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 1c | 7,002$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…1ca0backed Yes | 1c | 4,675$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 1c | 2,912$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,351$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 2c | 986.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 895$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…b4d0backed Yes | 3c | 666.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 8c | 649.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…dccebacked Yes | 2c | 539.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…54b7backed Yes | 3c | 415.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…ece6backed Yes | 4c | 236.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 221.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…402fbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 78c | 85.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by January 16, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.