Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf849eb45a55c15cf4e880c451351c99066167bdf63eded34a3211b23ba788972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 70c | 268.69$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 248.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.65 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 28c | 184.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 141.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 139.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 74c | 124.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 81.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 70.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 56.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 51.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 48.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 43.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 64c | 38.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 69c | 35.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 52c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.