MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8859453f9e98b0f821020274c2f510c3445fff47958167580fc451b5b4fbc1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed No | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 45c | 1,576$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 1c | 1,570$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed No | 3c | 1,125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 56c | 876.69$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.05 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 44c | 662.53$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.02 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked No | 55c | 608.73$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed No | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed No | 56c | 191.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 52c | 183$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed No | 56c | 164.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed No | 55c | 46.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.