MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9170b74a15cb395cf7fe3c4f052ccf2218e9cb40b9ef11e64eb2d2c006ef978e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 1,326$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,036$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 45c | 1,005$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.25 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Under | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 353.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 6c | 273.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 52.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…d004backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 44.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 55c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 23.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.