MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa02d43191935b56b39a024aa532708a3aae3119afe47cc6b694a651a5a1116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 59c | 25,985$15,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,287.71 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Over | 56c | 8,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.73 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 4,171$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 4,044$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.19 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 40c | 3,096$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.86 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 40c | 2,736$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.38 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 2,135$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.62 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 1,915$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 52c | 1,307$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.57 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 41c | 1,245$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.93 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 1,165$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.51 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 52c | 1,090$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.72 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 1,040$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.03 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Under | 42c | 1,005$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.69 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 860.22$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 40c | 589.38$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.63 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 570.71$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 479.78$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.87 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…b908backed Under | 42c | 457$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 51c | 216$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 47c | 213.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Under | 41c | 210$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 192.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 56c | 176.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 141.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 48c | 114.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 109.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 43c | 92.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 51c | 87.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 46c | 65.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Under | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 203 | 51.7%105 W · 98 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Under | 46c | 59.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 58.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4280…cb8cbacked Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Over | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 45c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…82a2backed Under | 42c | 40.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3da3backed Under | 40c | 40.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 30.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 30.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 45c | 27.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc66…f3aabacked Over | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.