MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf886e66fe8ffc23c9bae0a0ab18498a8a4738aa5c2984c57af12609d28554f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 576.63$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 478.38$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 288.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 175.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 115.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 114.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 875 | 52.7%461 W · 414 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 107.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 101.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 85.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 70.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 51.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 49.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 40.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 33.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 32.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 316 | 52.5%166 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 31.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Detroit Tigers | 56c | 28.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Detroit Tigers | 70c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.