Ukraine · resolved market
Russia announces air truce by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8c3e53808b6de5fc1c2a6ef84b2fa8dc9e2692fb8681e9c677a9c14cb1b0226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 2c | 8,449$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 4c | 8,118$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes | 10c | 2,900$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…531dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,476$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,420$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,952$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 7c | 1,811$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 999.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 980$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 13c | 900.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 654.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 5c | 593.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 560.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 413.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…0882backed Yes | 6c | 266.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -85%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.