La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8cc39590762a0919dd2d9dbaf213117fbf8caa916cdfb93835606656b8fde0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 1,669$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.33 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 35c | 1,543$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 55c | 719.68$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 47c | 640.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.83 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Over | 58c | 148.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 119.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 67.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 31c | 51.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 48c | 51.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 43.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 61c | 29.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 65cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5)Málaga CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.