Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica beat Barcelona?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e53912659568f7377e1e7979fa47e0c6682ed1bdf1ff26e39cc7874ae0cfa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 23c | 3,925$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.26 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 77c | 3,496$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.12 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked No | 20c | 3,070$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.23 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…1938backed Yes | 70c | 1,308$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Yes | 75c | 1,297$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.46 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…12b1backed No | 55c | 701.38$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed No | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 30c | 560.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.21 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 76c | 512$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.2 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 28c | 322.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.16 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 37c | 285.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.12 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…8cb0backed Yes | 34c | 219.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed No | 23c | 215.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 23c | 212.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd700…7310backed No | 76c | 147.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 76c | 136.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…49bcbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 32c | 126.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 60c | 105.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 15c | 92.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 62c | 89.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 34c | 89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6776…8ca2backed No | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed No | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked No | 32c | 63.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…ba27backed No | 21c | 62.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…4f10backed No | 69c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…16bebacked Yes | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 49c | 35.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…521cbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1035…904fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8901…5f1cbacked No | 48c | 29.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1038…3cfcbacked Yes | 73c | 28.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2571…bc14backed Yes | 77c | 26.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…550ebacked Yes | 76c | 25.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica beat Barcelona?this page
- Will Barcelona beat Benfica?Yes won
- Will the match between Benfica and Barcelona end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.