Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf909efb0f25e0b35dbe102963a73f9c4a63bddbf52db87fb65c89dcb32f4b164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,812 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Up | 71c | 5,192$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…d2abbacked Down | 34c | 2,754$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Down | 50c | 2,690$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.98 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…0f31backed Down | 36c | 2,686$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…d8fbbacked Down | 36c | 2,655$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…44bcbacked Up | 66c | 1,392$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…8db7backed Up | 66c | 1,362$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…8df4backed Up | 64c | 1,361$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…6ff8backed Up | 64c | 1,357$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…5692backed Up | 64c | 1,329$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c44…7920backed Up | 64c | 1,294$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 79c | 567.82$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Down | 52c | 385.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 36c | 351.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7b…2748backed Up | 64c | 310$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf530…f047backed Up | 64c | 306$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…ff48backed Up | 64c | 284$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1d…9dadbacked Down | 36c | 283$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Down | 6c | 280.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…abb2backed Up | 58c | 255$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5472…6b9ebacked Down | 36c | 249$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…663fbacked Up | 58c | 241$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…51debacked Up | 58c | 232$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…4d6dbacked Down | 42c | 224$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…7079backed Down | 42c | 203$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…ef9abacked Down | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Down | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc0…5124backed Up | 64c | 192$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…a6adbacked Down | 36c | 191$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…be2abacked Down | 42c | 180$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…165fbacked Down | 36c | 169$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Down | 34c | 146.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…6692backed Down | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Up | 74c | 117.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Down | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Up | 54c | 90.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Down | 44c | 87.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…6162backed Down | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Down | 18c | 72.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…0da1backed Up | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed Down | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Up | 68c | 28.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…41a5backed Up | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.