Middle East · resolved market
Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Hormuz" 3+ times during press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9154e52112f0a611a7f1e8544eeba9e70d5b3fd5d588f736f89a69dab09836c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 50c | 727.9$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.79 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes | 6c | 635.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 425$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 50c | 330$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 46c | 255.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.48 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed No | 60c | 132.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed Yes | 49c | 98.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…a5d2backed Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 37c | 76.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 72.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…973cbacked No | 50c | 69.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…df73backed No | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4551…3721backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…2930backed Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 26cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Hormuz" 3+ times during press conference?this page
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "America" 15+ times during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Death" 3+ times during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Epic Fury" 5+ times during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "F-35" or "F-22" or "F-15" during press conference?Yes won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "France" during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Intelligence" during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Iran" 10+ times during press conference?Yes won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Israel" during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Midnight Hammer" 3+ times during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Nuclear" 5+ times during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Peace" during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Power" 5+ times during press conference?Yes won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "President" or "Trump" 20+ times during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Sacrifice" during press conference?No won
- Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Water Supply" during press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.